In the steepest weekly fall ever, India's forex reserves slid by $11.17 billion to $606.47 billion as the currency came under pressure due to geopolitical developments, according to the Reserve Bank data released on Friday. For the previous reporting week ended March 25, the overall reserves had slid by $2.03 billion to $617.65 billion. The steep fall in the reserves was because of a decline in the core currency assets, which fell by $10.73 billion to $539.73 billion.
India has built up buffers against cyclical difficulties and has ample foreign exchange reserves to withstand pressure on credit worthiness, S&P Global Ratings said on Thursday. Speaking at the India Credit Spotlight 2022 webinar, S&P Sovereign & International Public Finance Ratings director Andrew Wood said the country has a strong external balance sheet and limited external debt, making debt servicing not so expensive. "The country has built up buffers against cyclical difficulties like those, which we are experiencing right now," Wood said.
The Union Finance Ministry on Friday announced key amendments to foreign exchange (forex) regulations, including mandating government approvals for all investments originating from countries that share land borders with India. The latest amendments also seek to simplify cross-border share swaps and streamline key definitions, such as "control". The updated regulations have aligned the treatment of downstream investments made by overseas citizen of India (OCI)-owned entities with those owned by non-resident Indians (NRIs) on a non-repatriation basis.
Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das on Monday said with the country's foreign exchange reserves at $677 billion, it is comfortably placed to deal with any spillover effects and for financing of the current account deficit. Over the last three years, the country's foreign exchange reserves have surged by $270 billion. He said as per the latest data, the foreign exchange reserves are $622 billion.
At Forex market, the domestic unit commenced lower at 53.95 a dollar from previous close of 53.81and moved in a restricted range of 53.88 and 54.06 before settling at 53.94, showing a fall of 13 paise, or 0.24 per cent.
For the first time, the rupee declined to the low level of 80 against the US dollar in intra-day spot trading on Monday before ending the session 16 paise lower at 79.98 amid a surge in crude oil prices and unrelenting foreign fund outflows. At the interbank forex market, the local unit opened at 79.76 against the greenback but lost ground to touch the psychological low mark of 80 against the American currency. The local unit clawed back some lost ground and closed at 79.98, registering a fall of 16 paise over its previous close.
India's inclusion in JP Morgan's bond index can channel billions of dollars into India. How will the government securities market handle it?
The ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia is unlikely to have any major impact on the Indian rupee and the forex volatility in the country (USD/INR) has been much less now as compared to the global financial crisis which took place in 2008, SBI said in its Ecowrap research report. The report said that though the conflict between the two CIS nations may drag on for now, it is expected that the USD/INR, the most tracked pair in the local forex market, will trade at an elevated zone. But ideally, the expected average range of the rupee is expected to be in the band Between Rs 76 to Rs 78 to the USD with an appreciated bias.
Since the introduction of exchange traded forex futures contract in 1972 at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, the ever increasing transaction volume and participation has established the popularity of Forex in the world.
The fall in reserves was due to a sharp fall in foreign currency assets.
Reliance Industries was the top gainer in the Sensex pack, surging over 3 per cent, followed by Bajaj Finserv, IndusInd Bank, HDFC twins and Kotak Bank. NSE Nifty surged 143.25 points or 1.18 per cent to 12,263.55.
As the central bank continues to increase forex reserves by running down the forward book which totalled $42 billion as of end-July, signalling its strong resolve to build a bigger reserve cushion to aid its expansionary, unorthodox monetary policy, the reserves are set to top the $655-billion-mark by March, according to a report. The forex kitty declined by $2.10 billion to $619.36 billion for the week to August 13 due to a fall in the core currency assets and gold, showed the latest RBI data. The reserves had risen to a lifetime high of $621.46 billion in the previous reporting week ending August 6.
Business is down to such an extent that last year these firms could not even meet RBI's capital norm of Rs 50 million for partnerships and Rs 100 million for public and private firms in this line of business.
Foreign portfolio investors (FPI) have pulled out $3.5 billion from India's equity markets so far this month. The selling comes on the back of election-induced volatility and the rotation of flows from India to China, where stocks are available at half the valuations. If the selling pressure remains at the current level, this will be the highest FPI pullout since January 2023.
The country's foreign exchange reserves crossed the $600 billion mark for the first time after increasing by $6.842 billion in the week ended June 4, RBI data showed on Friday. The reserves surged to a record $605.008 billion in the reporting week, helped by a rise in foreign currency assets (FCA), a major component of the overall reserves, as per weekly data by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). In the previous week ended May 28, 2021, the reserves had swelled by $5.271 billion to $598.165 billion.
Strong month-end demand for the US currency mainly from oil importers along with currency futures expiry related purchases predominantly weighed heavily on the forex market and haunted investor sentiment.
Sliding for the fifth straight session, the rupee fell 3 paise to close at a fresh lifetime low of 79.06 against the US dollar on Thursday amid a strong greenback overseas and unrelenting foreign fund outflows. At the interbank forex market, the local unit opened at 78.92 against the greenback and witnessed an intra-day high of 78.90 and a low of 79.07. It finally settled at 79.06, down 3 paise over its previous close of 79.03.
A potential risk to the rupee's appreciation trajectory lies in the event of a delay in the Federal Reserve's rate cut cycle, particularly if core inflation in the US remains elevated.
Following are the highlights of the Economic Survey 2022-23 tabled in Parliament on Tuesday
To provide exporters/importers greater flexibility in risk management, RBI enhanced the limit available to exporters to 50 per cent
The rupee weakened by 14 paise to close at a new lifetime low of 79.59 against the US dollar on Tuesday as a strong greenback overseas and persistent foreign fund outflows continued to weigh on investor sentiment. This comes a day after the RBI announced measures for international trade settlement in rupees. At the interbank forex market, the local unit opened weak at 79.55 against the greenback and witnessed an intra-day high of 79.53 and a low of 79.66.
Two-wheeler exports from India have decreased by 20 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) to 1.69 million units in the first half (H1) of 2023-24 (FY24) due to a challenging geopolitical situation and foreign exchange (forex) crises in key markets such as South Asia, industry body Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (Siam) said on Monday. On the other hand, passenger vehicle (PV) exports in H1FY24 increased by 5 per cent to 336,754 units because the key markets are much more diversified worldwide, Vinod Aggarwal, president, Siam, told reporters during a press conference. The Russia-Ukraine war, which started in February 2022, has brought significant instability to global fuel prices.
The rupee fell by 41 paise to close at a fresh lifetime low of 79.36 (provisional) against the US dollar on Tuesday amid a strong greenback overseas and unrelenting foreign fund outflows. At the interbank forex market, the local unit opened at 79.04 against the greenback and witnessed an intra-day high of 79.02 and a low of 79.38. It finally settled at 79.36 (provisional), down 41 paise over its previous close.
India's macroeconomic fundamentals are strong to deal with global challenges and the central government is committed to sticking to the fiscal deficit target of 6.4 per cent of the GDP for the current fiscal, official sources said on Monday. The government is taking steps to deal with the spiralling crude oil prices in the international market, the sources said. India meets nearly 85 per cent of its oil demand through imports and a weaker rupee makes imports costlier.
Forex trading is the act of trading currencies from different countries against each other. Forex is acronym for foreign exchange.
The reserves nearing $ 428 billion can take care of imports for almost 10 months, according to market experts.
SBI was the top gainer, soaring over 5 per cent, followed by Tata Steel, IndusInd Bank, Bajaj Finance, Bajaj Finserv and HCL Tech.
Among the Sensex firms, Kotak Bank, PowerGrid, ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, PowerGrid were the major gainers. HUL, TCS, M&M, IndusInd Bank, HCL Tech were among the losers.
Commodity trading and forex trading are two of the most popular ways to invest and two of the markets which are easiest to make money in.
Godrej Consumer Products (GCPL) reported 6 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) consolidated net revenue growth in Q4FY24 to Rs 3,385 crore and this was impacted adversely by currency movement. The constant currency (CC) growth would have been 30 per cent Y-o-Y in Q4FY24. India business clocked 12 per cent Y-o-Y revenue growth (5 per cent of it organic) with volume growth of 15 per cent Y-o-Y (7 per cent organic).
The rupee depreciated by 9 paise and settled at its all-time low level of 83.13 against the US dollar on Wednesday, weighed down by a surge in crude oil prices and strong American currency. Forex traders said the Indian rupee depreciated as the US dollar rose to the highest levels in six months. Moreover, elevated crude oil prices also weighed on rupee.
Mumbai-based Weizmann, part of a diversified group, will take to court its former partner Western Union Holdings, the American money-transfer giant, alleging that the United States-based company has imitated its trademark and logo. This, its lawyers say, constitutes a case of infringement and dilution of its intellectual-property rights.
Overall forex market sentiment remained cautious
Overall forex market sentiment suffered a sudden reversal of fortune contrary to expectation largely moving in line with local equities, reversing all early strong gains.
Equity benchmark Sensex ended 127 points higher on Friday, primarily led by gains in auto, metal and power sector stocks amid positive cues from global markets.
In line with equity market, the rupee trimmed its initial losses but was quoted still lower by 17 paise on dollar demand from banks and importers despite weakness of the US currency overseas.
IndusInd Bank was the top laggard, tumbling over 7 per cent, followed by Bajaj Finance, M&M, Tech Mahindra, TCS and Tata Steel.
Indian rupee, which earlier this week touched an all-time low, is likely to remain under pressure and may test new levels as a fallout of the US Federal Reserve indicating more interest rate hikes, experts said. The aggressive rate hikes will dampen demand and increase the possibility of a recession in the US. This could accelerate the pace of capital outflows, weaken the rupee and raise the threat of imported inflation.
On the Sensex chart, M&M, NTPC, Bajaj Auto, Tech Mahindra, TCS and Maruti emerged as top gainers. NSE Nifty climbed 157.55 points to settle at 14,919.10.
Weak dollar in the overseas market also boosted the rupee value against the dollar, a forex dealer said.
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